Non-rational Behavior and Overoptimistic Planning in International Project Management

This research project deals with behavioral aspects of international project management, focusing on overoptimistic estimations and judgments made by people involved in the process of project management.

Project management literature shows that a high rate of projects ultimately fail. This indicates that during the project management process, including the project planning phase, wrong expectations exist or are expressed. Unrealistic expectations might refer to different aspects, such as risks and benefits of the project or project-complexity, which is linked to the feasibility and the time frame for project completion.

For the management of projects with an international scope cultural differences need to be taken into consideration. Information given by local managers concerning time frame, expected costs or likelihood of project success must be evaluated in consideration of the cultural background. This is why it is likely that the statement "the lines will be ready to produce in about three weeks" is not an objective estimation, but is subject to differing cultural interpretations. Besides the general problem of overoptimistic estimations such a statement might be interpreted differently by the sender and the recipient and therefore needs to be evaluated as a factor of cultural differences. For example, a person belonging to culture A might interpret the statement in a "security-oriented" way and expect the lines to be ready to produce at the latest in three weeks. A person from culture B might take a normal delay of about two weeks into account and therefore expect the time frame to be up to five weeks.

The aim of this research project is to analyze established psychological biases in the field of international project management. The insights from different experimental approaches will support companies in improving their international project management.